Create Jeopardy Game

NFL Betting: Using Yards per Point to generate nice profits

NFL games have the tightest lines of any pro sport in North America, and as a result it is in theory the toughest sport to beat. Still, we tested a method last season that combined offensive yards per point and defensive yards allowed to forecast spreads, and when the difference from the real spreads was three points or more, the results were better than 55 percent! Now it is no secret that NFL lines are the tightest of any professional sport, as bookmakers have plenty of time to get the lines right with teams playing only one game per week, and these lines have to be sharp with the NFL having easily the largest betting volume of any North American sport. It also has the largest betting limits, which is a strong indication that the books are confident in their numbers. For this reason, bettors that think they can beat the NFL by analyzing basic widely available statistics are doomed to failure, as the sportsbooks have already analyzed all of those basic stats when making the line, and they are way ahead of the gamblers in that regard. Bettors have to look deeper at more advanced stats just to turn a profit, and maintaining a profit over many years is tougher in the NFL than in any other pro sport. Our approach uses offensive YPP and defensive yards allowed to create a theoretical point spread, which we would then compare to the spreads on upcoming games . Now back-testing our approach takes time, because we cannot simply look at year-end statistics from past seasons and apply them to that year. Rather, we need to know the season-to-date numbers heading into each week, which is a much more complicated test. What you need to gather each week is the offensive YPP and the defensive yards allowed for each team. To get a team’s projected score, you divide its opponent’s defensive yards allowed per game by the teams own YPP. For example, if Team A has a YPP of 15.00 and Team B is allowing 300.0 yards per game, Team A’s predicted score would be 20 (300.0/15.00). After doing the same thing for Team B, you compare the predicted scores to get a point spread. For a real life example, let us look at last year’s wild card playoff game between the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts . We chose a game from that week for convenience, as it would use numbers from the entire 2010 regular season, which are easier to find than partial season-to-date numbers.

Jeff Lay's Ed Tech: Create Jeopardy Games without PowerPoint!

If you don't have time or the desire to create your own game, there is a game database on the site.  You can explore games created by other teachers and assign them to your students.  Another advantage is that you don't have to register for the site.  You can register if you want to build your own database of games, but it's not necessary.  When you create a game, you are given a url for access to the game.  Just give the url to students or post it on your blog/website. It's that easy!  If you don't register for an account, just remember the url for your Jeopardy game(s).  If you forget it, there's no way to recover it. My name is Jeff. I am Director of Finance and a technology trainer for the Osage County Interlocal Cooperative. I have 7 years teaching experience in 7-12 mathematics, business, and computer courses. I have also taught higher ed math and business courses. My passion is helping teachers integrate technology into their instruction. I hope this blog helps you learn new ways to present information and instruct your students. Together we can transform our classrooms.

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